Those hoping for a blue wave in November should have felt the surf building last night. The Democrats got what are probably the best possible outcomes in their own gubernatorial primary and in the Republican primary that determined who will challenge U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin.
Democratic primary winner Tony Evers has won three statewide races for state schools superintendent. And he got 70 percent of the vote as recently as his last victory in April of 2017, only months after Donald Trump’s narrow victory here.
Evers’ expertise is in education, an issue state voters rank at the top of their concerns. Because Gov. Scott Walker can read a poll as well as anyone, he’s gone out of his way to rebrand himself the “education governor.” He’ll have a hard time making the case that he’s better equipped to address that issue than Evers.
Perhaps Evers’ strongest qualification is the very thing a lot of Democratic voters lamented: his lack of charisma. But here’s the thing: Still stinging from Wisconsin’s role in delivering the White House to Trump, liberals here are fired up to show the nation that Wisconsin can still be purple, if not bright blue again. In short, Democrats don’t need an exciting candidate to get them to the polls this fall.
On the other hand, there’s some evidence that a candidate who excites his party’s base does more to turn out votes against him from the opposing party. Yes, the Republicans will spend a fortune attacking Evers over his handling of a case regarding a Middleton teacher who viewed porn on a school computer. But the facts there tend to support Evers, and if this is all they have, well, candidates with much heavier baggage ran in the primary.
On the Republican side, members of the Baldwin camp wouldn’t say it out loud, but it’s pretty clear they got the opponent they wanted in state Sen. Leah Vukmir. Her opponent, Kevin Nicholson, had never held elected office before, and had no record to attack. He is also a Marine veteran at a time when a military background is a big plus. Finally, as a young man he had been an active Democrat, which could have increased his appeal to swing voters in November.
But that Democratic background might have proved fatal to him in the primary, where rabid conservative purity going back to birth, if not conception, was a must. In that way, the Republicans may have guaranteed their own demise in the general election by nominating the extreme Vukmir, who ran a primary ad in which she sat in a dark room with a handgun ominously sitting on the table in front of her. Red meat for far-right Republicans, but kind of creepy for normal people.
All in all, Democrats should feel good about these results. For those looking for a blue wave this fall, surf’s up.
